Procollagen II C propeptide level in the synovial fluid as a predictor of radiographic progression in early knee osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE To investigate the prognostic value of procollagen type II carboxy-terminal propeptide (PIICP) level in synovial fluid in relation to early tibiofemoral joint osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS Data were collected on 172 women (age 40 to 59 years) who had knee pain and tibiofemoral joint OA in the early stage. Standing semiflexed knee radiographs were obtained by fluoroscopy at baseline and at four year follow up and a computerised, magnification corrected measurement system was applied to measurement of minimal joint space width in the tibiofemoral compartment. Synovial fluid sampling was performed at baseline and at the four year follow up. Levels of PIICP in the synovial fluid were measured by enzyme immunoassay. The outcome measures were assessed by radiographic joint space narrowing (JSN) in the tibiofemoral joints over four years. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to examine the relation between radiographic JSN and synovial fluid level of PIICP. RESULTS The number of women available at both baseline and at four year follow up was 110. The average of radiographic JSN over four years was 0.53 mm (range 0.00-2.01). Body mass index showed a slightly positive association with baseline PIICP level. In multiple linear regression analyses adjusted for age and body mass index, radiographic JSN over four years had a direct positive correlation with baseline PIICP level (r=0.395; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.231 to 0.529; p<0.001). CONCLUSION In a four year prospective study of women, quantification of synovial fluid PIICP was able to predict subsequent radiographic progression in early tibiofemoral joint OA.